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The Economist's Intelligence Unit has published a white a paper on Singapore as the city state marks its 50th anniversary. "Striding Ahead and Feeling Secure at 50" rounds up Singapore's sucesses over the past five decades as well as the challenges it will likely be facing in the future. Here are some of the higlights.
Political challenges
"Although the risk that the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) will be unseated from power in the next election remains very low, policymaking targeted at quelling public resentment is not sustainable in the long run and takes away from Singapore’s reputation for efficiency." "There are unlikely to be any notable changes to the electoral system in the near future. In the long term, however, the mismatch between the PAP's continued parliamentary dominance and its declining popular support seems politically unsustainable.""Further protests are likely as Singaporeans become more politically engaged, but these will not destabilise the government. A government initiative, the Fair Consideration Framework, requires employers to consider Singaporeans before hiring foreigners, and exposes firms to scrutiny if they are found to be using disproportionately low numbers of Singaporean workers or if there are complaints about unfair practices. This will help to alleviate public hostility towards immigration."
Need for productivity
"Enhancing productivity becomes particularly significant in view of the tightened immigration laws that have significantly increased operational costs for businesses. Despite several incentives offered to small businesses to increase productivity, there has been little progress on this front." "Given that the city state’s unemployment rate averaged just 2% in the first three quarters of 2014, restrictive labour practices will hurt business efficiency, as well as Singapore’s competitiveness and reputation for openness."
Birth rate
"Although financial inducements in some form have been in place since the mid-1980s, they have failed to boost the birth rate. The fertility rate reached a record low of 1.25 children per resident female in 2004 and was only marginally higher, at 1.29, in 2012....The lack of childcare facilities and the high cost of living act as constraints to the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at increasing the birth rate."
China and Spratlys dispute
"The recent escalation in regional tensions due to territorial disputes in the South China Sea, which provides passage to large volumes of the world's shipping trade, could have a negative impact on GDP growth in Singapore, as the city state's trade-dependent economy is reliant on safe waterways. This has led the country to participate actively across diplomatic platforms to emphasise the need for peace in the region, while maintaining its neutral foreign policy stance."
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